A STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF TERRORISM AND ITS IMPLICATION ON GLOBAL SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY (A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN 2010-2017)
Abstract-
Pakistan has suffered huge economic and human losses due war in Afghanistan started after 9/11 incidence in the United States. In this research paper, we investigated the impact of war against terrorism on Pakistan’s economy. We constructed a questionnaire and collected data from 300 respondents living in District Muzaffargarh. The objective of this paper was to measure the impact of war against terrorism on Pakistan’s economy. We highlighted our result through tables, percentage values and graphs. Our empirical results show that terrorism has substantially affected Pakistan’s economy in terms of unemployment, poverty, high cost of security in public and private sectors, uncertainty and high cost of doing business.
chapter 1. Introduction
1.1 Background of the study
Pakistan has multidimensional problems like political, economic instability, lawlessness, terrorism, insecurity and influx of millions of refugees due to war in Afghanistan since 2001. The cumulative impact is enormous, with adverse growth rate in all major sectors of the economy. Due to uncertainty and instability the cost of doing business has increased in Pakistan and its exports are continuously eroding years after years. The impact of the incidents of terrorism or the cost of war in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s involvement in it on behest of the United States can be assessed from the summary of year-wise losses from 2001 to March 2017, the direct and indirect cost incurred by Pakistan due to incidents of terrorism amounted to US$ 123.13 billion equivalents to Rs. 10,373.93 billion. This is the huge cost for a developing country like Pakistan. The human cost includes the killing of 35,000 armed personnel and more 0.12 million innocent people who were killed during suicidal bombing. The social cost is that now all business private and public organizations and individuals are bearing security cost by recruiting security guards for their security. If we translate this cost into financial cost, it will be amounted to be billions of rupees every year. It highlights the fact how much huge cost Pakistan is paying for being involved in Afghan war. After the Mallala’s episode and merciless killing of innocent children in Peshawar School, it was expected that radicalization would have increased. Militants prohibited female education in Swat. Boy’s schools were also destroyed. 190 Government schools had been burnt and about 150,000 students were deprived of education. In the affected area of swat, approximately 45,504 students were enrolled in these schools. After all these destructions, government of Pakistan came into action and crafted 20-points National Action Plan. The major plan was “Zarb-e- Azb”. That was launched against all terrorist groups without any discrimination all over the country. The northern areas were cleared from the terrorists. Peace was returned to Karachi, which was a center of ethnic conflict. After “Zarb-e-Azb” campaign security situation has improved in the country. This has created suitable environment for the investment in Pakistan. In spite of all these efforts, it is very necessary to built durable peace and stability in Afghanistan. It will help to increase economic growth in Pakistan.
1.2 Main Research Problem
Main research problem of the study is to measure “The impact of war against terrorism on Pakistan’s economy”.
1.3 Objectives of study
The objectives of the study are given below:
To review the causes of terrorism in Pakistan
To measure the economic and social Impacts of terrorism.
To suggestion the solution how to control and eliminate terrorism.
1.4 Research Questions
We have divided our research problem into the following questions in order to get their answers.
Can Pakistan reduce the terrorism in future?
Has Pakistan economy damaged due to American war?
Has Pakistan economy failed due to corruption?
Is Pakistan’s involvement in Afghan war a correct decision?
Has terrorism reduce the foreign Direct investment (FDI)?
Is terrorism increase the cost of business activities?
Ha terrorism increased the defense budget of Pakistan?
Has terrorism affected the infrastructure?
Did investors trust lose due to the terrorist attack in Pakistan?
Are tourism and sports industries affected by terrorism?
Are Un-employment increased due to terrorism? Did the exports decline due to terrorism in Pakistan?
Did the local industries move to other countries due to terror attacks activities?
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW
Berrebi (2007) presented the statistical analysis. The author came to the conclusion that there were two reasons for the participation in Hamas and PIJ the reasons were higher education and standard of living. He gave a suggestion to reduce the probability of participation in terrorist activities and according to him marriage became significantly important. Bird et al. (2008) discussed causes consequences, Author was of the view that most number of terrorist attacks were founded in US and some European countries over the period from 1998 to 2003. Campana & Lapointe (2012) proposed a systematic review of the structural “root” causes of non-suicide terrorism. 250 were the total number of articles, but 48 articles were included in the study. Caruso & Schneider (2011) investigated the socio-economic causes of terrorism. Economic disconnect was explained by the Emergence of political violence and terrorism. Freytag et al. (2011) examined the origins of terrorism. For this purpose, he investigated socio-economic determinants of terrorism. It was concluded that it was non-linearly related to terrorism with respect to, the effect of per capita income. Newman (2006) described root causes of terrorism into quantitative and qualitative variables. When, where and why terrorism occurred was explained in this study. The relationship between the frequency of terrorism and the socio-economic conditions included human development, political rights, inequality civil liberates and population’s density, political right and urbanization were analyzed by the researcher. Pilat (2009) provided an analytical framework, to understand the origin of terrorism. Author identified the counter terrorism and what could be known about causation. Rapid urbanization, increased poverty, declining, traditional authority, globalization and so forth were the causes of terrorism. Academic differences were merely reflecting philosophical, religious, political and other differences.
Summary of Reviewed literature
We have examined the previous research studies based on the causes of terrorism and determinants of terrorism. The literature review consists of recent as well as some old research studies. The studies explored for the local and foreign based studies but specially focused on the economy of Pakistan. Methodologies and the findings of the previous studies helped to plan the building of whole study. Berrebi (2007) presented the statistical analysis of the determinants of participation in terrorist activities. He gave a suggestion to reduce terrorism, marriage became significantly important. Pilat (2009) provided an analytical framework, to understand the origin of terrorism. He identified the counter terrorism. Test as (2004) quantified the factors behind terrorism. Regress or included education attainment, political and income (GDP per capita). 3.TERRORISM AND PAKISTAN’S ECONOMY In all the major sectors of economy, overall growth rate was affected due to the terrorism. Trading activities were also disrupted. Meetings were delayed and export process was also disturbed. As a result, products of Pakistan lost their market share to their competitors. Economic growth could not increase as planned. Pakistan became the serious victim of terrorism. After seeing all these things, Pakistan decided to use its natural resources, men and material resources. To use all these resources, it repaired the infrastructure that was damaged. After all these destructions, government of Pakistan decided to take measure and launched “Zarb-e-Azb” military campaign against all terrorist groups without any discrimination.
Economic cost of War
Pakistan continued to pay a heavy price in terms of both the economic and security terms. A large portion of its resources, both men and material are being consumed by this war for the last several years. The economy was subjected to enormous direct and indirect costs which continued to rise from $ 2.669 billion in 2001-02 to $ 23.77 billion in 2010-11. The financial year 2010-2011 was the worse year for Pakistan from economic and human losses point of view. Then the massive military campaign “Zarb-e-Azam” launched against terrorists brought a positive impact on the economy and reduced losses from $ 23.77 billion in 2010-11 to $6.49 billion in 2015-16. However, Pakistan’s economy is suffering and will continue to suffer economic and human losses until the end of Afghan war. The western countries including the United States continued to impose travel ban for their citizen (investor, importers etc.) to visit Pakistan. This has affected Pakistan’s exports, prevented the inflows of foreign investment, affected the pace of privatization program, slowed the overall economic activity, reduced tax collection, enhanced expenditures on additional security spending, damaging domestic tourism industry, rise unemployment and poverty rate, stop further industrialization. The destruction of domestic/foreign tourism industry; physical infrastructure (military and civil), massive surge in security related spending; migration of thousands of people from war affected areas and the associated rise in expenditure to support internally displaced persons. Pakistan’s investment-to-GDP ratio has nosedived from 22.5 percent in 2006-07 to 13.4 percent in 2010-11 with serious consequences for job creating ability of the economy. Going forward, Pakistan needs enormous resources to enhance productive capacity of the economy. The security situation will be the key determinant of the future flow of the investment. Pakistan economy needs an early end to this war.
CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODLOGY
We have discussed below the descriptive analysis for economic impact of war against terrorism on Pakistan economy.
3.1 Research Design
A study related to the research design is the process about researcher’s guidance that, how to get the data and where to collect the data. These types of research belong to the quantitative in nature. The main aim of this study is to measure the economic impact of war against terrorism on Pakistan’s economy’. Because this war has directly affected the economy of Pakistan, and as such we have applied a descriptive analytical technique.
3.2 Data Collection We used two types of data in this research.
3.2.1 Secondary Data We
used secondary data in this study and this data was collected from research journals and different newspapers, Economic Survey of Pakistan etc.
3.2.2 Primary Data
In order to measure the impact of war against terrorism we developed a questionnaire through which we collected primary data from 300 respondents living in Tehsil Kot Addu, District Muzaffargarh. 4.3 Sample of study The data was collected randomly. we collected data from rural and urban areas of Tehsil Kot Addu, District Muzaffargarh.
CONCLUSIONS
Terrorism is a big curse for whole world. It can destroy the economy of any country. It can make any country cripple. Because economy is considered the backbone of any country so it directly effects on it. The same is the case in Pakistan. Terrorism directly effects on the economy of Pakistan. It not only damaged its economy but also damaged its whole society. However, 76% of respondents were agreed that Pakistan can reduce terrorism in future but 24% were of the view that it is hard task to eradicate it over nightly. 82.5% of the respondents was is that American war damaged Pakistan economy but 17.5% respondents negate it. Likewise, 100% respondents were agreed that Pakistan economy is failed due to massive corruption. 95 percent of respondents opposed Pakistan’s involvement in Afghan war on behest of the United States. 94% sampling population was agreed that terrorism has reduced foreign direct investment (FDI). 82% population thinks that terrorism has increased the cost of doing business, while 18% were disagree with it. When they were questioned about the increase in defense budget then 88% were of the view that terrorism can be a cause of increase in defense budget but 12% disagree with this question. 88% of the population is of the view that terrorism can affect the infrastructure but 12% cannot agree with it. Even 99% of the population was of the view that investor confidence was lost due to the terrorist attack in Pakistan. Majority of the respondents were agreed with it and 1% negated it. Likewise, 100% agreed that terrorism has affected the tourism and sports industry as well. After discussing all these facts, it is analyzed that terrorism effects a lot on Pakistan’s economy. It damaged the infrastructure, sports and tourism industry. It has also brought a great impact on Pakistan’s economy in the shape of un-employment, loss of lives and infrastructure. Export has declined, investor lost their
interest and even Pakistan has to increase its defense budget to overcome this problem. Pakistan has initiated military operation Zarb-e-Azab and Radul Fasad against terrorists all over the country. It has proved remarkably successful. So this operation paved the ways to create safe business and investment environment. In spite of all directly and indirectly losses of economy, Pakistan is now on the way of recovery. All losses are now decline.
RECOMMENDATIONS
We have made the following recommendations on the basis of above conclusions.
Poverty is the main cause of terrorism. In Pakistan large number of people are living below poverty line. Due to these circumstances, some people join terrorism. So the poverty should be reduced through poverty alleviation policies.
Government should reduce unemployment rate, because unemployment is one of major causes of terrorism.
Political disputes are also the cause of bomb blasts. Government of Pakistan should take appropriate measures to solve the political issues. Coordination among intelligence agencies should be improved.
In order to establish peace in the country, government of Pakistan must open dialogues with Al-Qaida and Taliban.
Literacy rate should be improved. Legal system must be improved.
REFERENCES
Awan, Abdul Ghafoor (2015).Shifting Global Economic Paradigm, Asian Business Review, Vol 4(3):35-40.
Awan, Abdul Ghafoor (2014).The Enigma of US Productivity Slowdown: A Theoretical Analysis, American Journal of Trade and Policy, Vol 1(1):7-15.
Awan, Abdul Ghafoor.(2012).Diverging Trends of Human Capital in BRIC countries. International Journal of Asian Social Science, Vol.2 (12):2195- 2219
Berrebi (2007). Statistical analysis of the determinants of participation in terrorist activities. Bird et al. (2008). Inter-nations terrorism.
Bowcott, Owen (2012) Drone Attacks in Pakistan are Counterproductive. The Guardian, September 25th, 2012.
Caruso and Schneider (2011). Socio-economic causes of political violence and terrorism in Western Europe. Freytag et al. (2011). Socio-economic determinants of terrorism.
Gries and Meirrieks (2013). Effect of banking crises on terrorist activity.
Newman (2006). Root Causes of Terrorism.
Pilat (2009) Origin of terrorism.
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